Wall Street started last week holding its breath while waiting to see whether Hosni Mubarak would step down as Egypt's president. Bowing to pro-democracy protests, Mubarak resigned on Friday, ending 30 years of authoritarian rule in the Middle East's most populous country.[1]
As fireworks burst over Cairo's Tahrir Square, there was a collective sigh of relief on Wall Street, while the benchmark averages rose to finish Friday's session with weekly gains. U.S. stocks climbed to fresh 2 1/2-year closing highs after the resignation of Mubarak removed a layer of uncertainty from global markets.[2] The Dow had a weekly advance of 1.5%, while the S&P 500 rose 1.4% and the Nasdaq added 1.5%.
Most analysts and investors agree that Mubarak's resignation dramatically reduces geopolitical risk and uncertainty from the region.[3] Reflecting this, oil prices fell following the news in Egypt, with crude dropping to $85.16 a barrel in midday trading Friday. Other dollar-denominated commodities, including gold and silver, also drifted lower following Mubarak's resignation. Gold prices slid $5.30, settling at $1,357.20 an ounce.[4]
On another topic, how does starting a new week on St. Valentine's Day traditionally affect the markets? Interestingly, the "day of love" hasn't customarily shown much "love" to investors; at least when using the S&P 500 index as a gauge. According to Howard Silverblatt, a senior index analyst at S&P Indices, going back to 1928, February 14 trading days only notched gains on the S&P 38.7% of the time against a historical daily rate of 52.03%. Here's an interesting caveat though - in looking at the 11 Valentine's Days that occurred on the first trading day of the week, the S&P 500 logged a gain 63.4% of the time.[5] While we're certainly not trying to make a prediction, it is interesting to see what history can teach us about market behaviors.
From war and peace one week, to love and chocolates the next, it just goes to show that almost any world event has potential to affect people's investments. Like everything in life, weathering all the little ups and downs requires intelligence, patience, and a cool head.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
Tuesday - Retail Sales, Empire State Mfg. Survey, Import and Export Prices, Redbook, Treasury International Capital, Business Inventories, Housing Market Index
Wednesday - Housing Starts, Producer Price Index, Industrial Production, EIA Petroleum Status Report, FOMC Minutes
Thursday - Consumer Price Index, Jobless Claims, Industrial Production, Leading
Performance
Notes: All index returns exclude reinvested dividends, and the 5-year and 10-year returns are annualized.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, MSCI Barra. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. NA means not available.
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